NFL Week 2 Teasers: Revised Wong Strategy Provides This Week's Play

Refreshed Wong Secrets are 1-0 of every 2022 in the wake of going 5-1 last season

Have you at any point took a gander at a sportsbook's NFL wagering lines and seen something like this?

Team Spread Odds

• Group B +9.0 -125
• Group A -9.0 +105

And afterward you asked why those lines are shown rather than a more conventional and equally evaluated choice under a dropdown menu like Group B +7.5 (- 110)/Group A - 7.5 (- 110)? Certainly, it's a good idea to see a cost like that recorded for key numbers, however you'll frequently see it out on non-key numbers a couple of times across a record.

The justification behind it is secret insurance for the 윈윈벳 sportsbook's benefit.

Mysteries are wagers that can be significant whenever utilized accurately — as a matter of fact, utilizing secrets made utilizing the rationale introduced in this article went 5-1 last season. This guide will make sense of the essential procedures you ought to use in 2022 while playing mysteries.

Present day NFL mystery procedure initially

• •Key customary principles actually stand today (not crossing zero, crossing key numbers, and so on.)
• •Sums stay to be a poor method for playing mysteries
• •The beforehand profoundly beneficial Wong Mysteries require a few basic updates
• •Mystery wagers to consider during the current week (Week 2)

For the unenlightened, a mystery is a combo wagered which is being talked at xat group (like a parlay) with fixed chances (in contrast to a parlay). You pick a specific number of focuses and a specific number of groups, and each spread is moved in support of yourself by the chose point sum. For instance, a three-group six-point mystery with +150 chances would look something like this:

• Group A - 8.5 now Group A - 2.5
• Group B +1.5 now Group B +7.5
• Group C +4.5 now Group C +10.5

Risk $100 to win $150

Benefit recommendation

The justification for why secrets can be a +EV wagered is that it is a rigged chances wagered. It doesn't make any difference which spreads you pick for your mystery; the payout chances are consistently something very similar. Also, since not all guide spreads are made equivalent due toward the recurrence that games end on football's key numbers, we can involve the proper chances in support of ourselves to make +EV bets.

So what do those +EV secrets resemble?

All things considered, for one's purposes, it is fundamental for realize your book's secret standards. The most vital differentiation is the treatment of pushes:

• A few books consider pushes misfortunes.
• Some consider pushes.
• Some deal you different chances for all things considered.

Also, and this is the brilliant rule of secrets, NEVER cross zero.

In the 6,568 games starting around 1995, an incredible 13 games (0.19%) have finished in a tie. So by going from - 1 to +1 (or the other way around), you are on a very basic level acquiring only one point yet paying two focuses to do as such.

So the thing would it be advisable for us to target?

Attempt to cross two key numbers, and plan to go across three and seven specifically on the grounds that they are the two most significant key numbers in football. Around 15% of games land on three, and one more 9.5% land on seven. Snatching other key numbers like 10 and 14 are OK yet not the best for expanding likelihood. GET MORE INFO

So what does that resemble?

Utilizing the model spreads from previously:

• Group A - 8.5 now Group A - 2.5 (crosses - 7 and - 3)
• Group B +1.5 now Group B +7.5 (crosses +3 and +7)
• Group C +4.5 now Group C +10.5 (crosses +7 and +10)

Mysteries with NFL aggregates

However, shouldn't something be said about aggregates? Basically, it is savvy to try not to prod NFL aggregates in light of the fact that any point stretch of sums won't ever come close in that frame of mind to an equivalent point stretch in spreads that incorporates three and seven.

For instance, the most elevated six-point combined recurrence in sums is around 19% (ordinarily from 40-45), while the six-point stretch going from three through seven has a recurrence of 44%. By playing a complete in this model, you are diminishing your total recurrence by 2.3x.

The one thing aggregates can assist us with regards to secrets is assisting us with benefiting from the sort of spreads we pick. Lower aggregates on a very basic level suggest that each point in that game is more earnestly to stop by. So naturally, each point we're acquiring on a low all out game spread adds to our recurrence total.

However, this low-all out thought is definitely not a unique one, which carries us to the sacred goal of secrets.

The Wong Mystery

In his book Sharp Games Wagering, Stanford Wong illustrated a secret methodology that would suitably be named and alluded to in the business as the "Wong Mystery." The general idea is:

Play a two-group, six-point secret

Just play top choices of - 7.5 to - 8.5 and longshots from +1.5 to +2.5

Wong Secrets gave high benefits to more than 10 years. They were productive to such an extent that Stanford Wong apparently impacted the manner in which books offer their lines and how they cost and grade bets.

• You can take a gander at any sportsbook today and see his impact:
• Costs of two-group mysteries have become more limited
• Many books presently grade any secret with a push leg in it as a misfortune
• Books intentionally attempt to avoid the - 7.5 to - 8.5 and +1.5 to +2.5 ranges

In any case, we adjust. Numerous bettors have made acclimations to assist with working on the hypothetical benefit of Wong Secrets to battle the expanded trouble. Some have demonstrated to show some commitment, for example, restricting it to spreads from games with aggregates of 49 or lower (which adds around 1.0% to the hit pace of every individual leg). Others have proposed restricting it to simply host groups for the two top picks and dark horses.

In any case, my information has shown that limiting secret legs to host groups has decreased the hit pace of those legs by 2-3%, though only playing street groups has expanded the hit pace of those legs by around 3.0-4.5%. This instinctively seems OK given the decreasing impact of home-field benefit and how that lessening rate has dominated Vegas' valuing of host groups.

So to audit, my recommended refreshed Wong Secret methodology pushing ahead would the follow:

• Play two-group, six-point secrets (search for - 110 chances)
• Just play top choices of - 7.5 to - 8.5 and longshots from +1.5 to +2.5
• Just mess around with sums of 49 or less
• Just play street groups

Week 2 NFL secrets

Few out of every odd seven day stretch of the 벳무브 NFL season will can fill these refreshed Wong Mysteries. Since books have done battle with Wong Mysteries for some time now, the productivity is a lot slimmer, and we should be incredibly careful and patient.

The current week's secret legs to consider as of Friday are:

• Washington +7.5 (absolute 48.5)
• Carolina +8 (absolute 43.5)
• Cincinnatti - 1.5 (absolute 41.5)

I will more often than not play only one secret each week for the motivations behind this article, so I will wipe out Washington because of the great aggregate and go with: